Powell’s “hawkish” dollar hits a new high and gold is like a bird in shock

Fundamentals:

At the annual meeting of the Global Jack Sunhall Central Bank, Fed Chairman Powell continued to maintain a hawkish tone in his speech. Powell said at the meeting that the Fed has no plans to change the current monetary policy until U.S. inflation is under control. Powell also said that in the Markets should not expect the Fed to change its current monetary stance quickly until inflation is under effective control.

After Powell’s hawkish remarks, the market’s expectations for a 75 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September rose sharply, and the target range for the U.S. federal funds rate by March 2023 is expected to reach 3.75%-4.0%.

The U.S. core PCE price index rose 4.6% year-on-year in July. The smallest year-on-year increase in nine months followed a 4.8% increase in June. Separately, the core PCE price index, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, rose 0.1 percent from the previous month, the slowest pace since February 2021, after rising 0.6 percent in June.

Friday’s consumer confidence index also recorded a sharp turnaround, while households’ expectations for short-term inflation fell to the lowest in eight months in August

With the improvement of the supply chain, PPI, CPI, PCE related inflation data have all recorded moderate, there are signs of peaking, inflation has moderated, but the labor market remains strong, retail sales and consumer payments still recorded growth, indicating that The Fed’s rate hike policy has not caused the economy to enter a recession, which will allow the Fed to continue to maintain its current aggressive monetary tightening policy. Powell’s speech at the central bank’s annual meeting clearly conveyed to the market that the Fed has no plans for the time being until inflation is not under control. Change current monetary policy.

Technical side:

The overall shape of gold in the monthly cycle is still a falling shape, but the downward momentum has been reduced. The weekly shape is a falling shape, the downward momentum still exists, and there is still room for a short-term decline. The trend is bearish, and there is still room for decline. The overall shock in the four-hour and one-hour cycles is in a downward trend. Intraday short-term trading recommends rebounding and shorting. Intraday pressure and resistance position attention: 1734/1740/1746; support position attention: 1718/1710/1704/1690; intraday short-term trend focus on 1734-1740 range suppression, intraday price pressure below this position, the trend is bearish, short-term trading Suggestion: The price rebounded from the 1730-1734 range, defended the 1741 range, and looked at the 1718-1710-1704-1693 range target.

Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. Personal advice is only for exchange and reference, and do not make trading instructions.