Today’s Outlook

The dollar-yen pair surged to 145.90 at one point against the backdrop of the difference in the direction of Japan-US monetary policy (hawkish US FOMC + dovish BOJ monetary policy meeting), but turned around to 140.35 due to yen-buying intervention by the government and the BOJ. It became a historically drastic market that crashed to 2 yen (2 yen jumped, followed by a sharp fall of 5.50 yen). During this period, the candlesticks broke below the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo conversion line and the Bollinger mid-band, which have continued to function as support, and from a technical point of view, the chart shape is becoming an impression of a deterioration in sentiment (yesterday’s chart was the price recovered for the time being supported by the psychological milestone of 140.00 and the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo reference line, but the recovery is slow).

The difference in the direction of monetary policy between Japan and the United States (rapid widening of the nominal interest rate differential between Japan and the United States → the appreciation of the dollar and the yen) and the difference in monetary policy between Japan and other  countries with negative interest rates → cross-yen appreciation → dollar-yen appreciation), and structural pressure to sell the yen due to the expansion of Japan’s trade deficit. has decided to intervene in the yen-buying exchange market, it is difficult to imagine that the dollar-yen market will recover soon. (Assuming intermittent depreciation of the dollar-yen exchange rate over the next few weeks). In addition, since today is a public holiday in Japan, actual demand is scarce, so we need to be vigilant against the risk of a fall in the dollar-yen exchange rate during the Asian time zone. Depending on the situation, there may be a scenario where the market will try to break below the psychological milestone of 140.00, so it will be necessary to pay close attention to easy contrarians (long-make).  Assuming nervous price movements while watching Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks.

Today’s expected range: 140.50-143.50