Today’s Outlook

The dollar/yen pair surged to 145.30 at one point with the 145-yen upper stop, but fell back to 144.16 at one point due to fears of intervention by the government and the Bank of Japan.

Fundamentals such as Japan-US monetary policy disparity (dollar buying/yen selling focused on the Japan-US nominal interest rate differential), Japan’s trade deficit (structural yen selling pressure), Ichimoku Kinko Hyo three-role turnaround, bullish perfect order, etc.

In terms of technical aspects, there are factors that suggest buying the dollar and selling the yen. In addition, the trend of the yen’s depreciation has receded recently (until now, only the Japanese yen has been in a state of “unilaterally depreciating yen”, but since the intervention on September 22, currencies other than the Japanese yen have in addition, the trend of the dollar’s lone appreciation is receding in response to the UK’s emergency measures and yesterday’s disappointing result of the ISM manufacturing index for September in the US. US long-term interest rates are falling sharply, so short-term dollar-yen depreciation risk is increasing

Based on the above, we continue to forecast a decline in the dollar-yen exchange rate as the main scenario. Today, in addition to August US manufacturing orders, August US orders for durable goods, August US JOLT Employment Trends Survey, US officials (Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Logan, New York Fed President Williams, FRB Director Jefferson remarks, San Francisco Fed President Daly’s remarks, etc.) will attract attention. Since the reversal of the US Treasury bond short flow (down US interest rates) has begun, if US economic indicators fall below market expectations, or if US officials make more cautious remarks, it will be “lower US interest rates → Sell US dollar. You need to be careful because the flow of “selling” may be spurred.

Today’s expected range: 143.50-145.00