The dollar/yen pair rebounded from the most recent low of 143.52 recorded on October 5th, and then surged to 145.84 yesterday, approaching the high of 145.90 just before the intervention on September 22nd. In the meantime, the market has broken out of all the major resistance points, and a strong buy signal has been suggested. However, since there is a “warning line for intervention by the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan (Kanda Ceiling 145.90)” which is perceived as a strong resistance on the upside, it is considered that it will not be easy to continue rising from here.
In particular, since today marks the end of three consecutive holidays in Japan, there is a risk that the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan will step up efforts to restrain the yen’s depreciation. In addition, at the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting starting tomorrow, there is a risk that remarks will be made that may imply a restraint on the strength of the dollar (on October 6, Treasury Secretary Yellen said, we are paying attention to the impact.”), and there is a risk of a position adjustment toward the US September consumer price index scheduled for October 13, so there is a risk of a pullback in the dollar-yen exchange rate today. (In the phase where the Kanda ceiling breaks out of 145.90 and climbs to the 146-yen level, the government and the Bank of Japan will not only check the yen’s depreciation and check the rate, but there is also the risk that the second round of live-fire intervention will be decided. (Assuming that the market will be volatile due to remarks by key figures).
Today’s expected range: 144.00-146.50