Global recession risk surges, dollar wins safe-haven king

Fundamentals size:

The US retail sales data released last week recorded a good performance, and consumer expectations for inflation also fell. The Fed officials’ speech suppressed market expectations that the Fed will take a more aggressive interest rate hike process due to inflation hitting a record high. After the data was released last Friday, the market’s expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates by 100 basis points in July fell sharply, and several Fed officials made speeches in support of the decision to continue raising interest rates by 75 basis points in July.

Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has put more pressure on the global supply chain, the sharp rise in energy prices in Europe has caused inflation to soar and the risk of economic recession has risen sharply. Raising interest rates by 150 basis points, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates much faster than other major economies in the world, making the dollar continue to rise; in the case of a rising dollar, the cost of holding gold for investors will become more expensive. Gold is a yielding commodity, and the increase in global economic uncertainty makes the US dollar the first choice for investors to hedge against risks;

Technical side:

The downward momentum of gold in the monthly cycle has not been completed, and there is still momentum to continue to decline. The momentum of the short-term decline in the weekly cycle has slowed down, but the overall downward structure remains intact; the downward momentum of gold in the daily cycle has shrunk and fell the structure remains intact, but there is a need for short-term fluctuations and corrections in the short-term.

The short-term gold trend will still be in the form of weak fluctuations. The short-term gold in the four-hour cycle will enter the range of fluctuations and consolidation. Pay attention to the competition in the range of 1697-1720 in the four-hour cycle, one hour the short-term focus on the 1702-1714 range is short-term, and there is no obvious direction in the short-term.

As the market will usher in the Fed’s interest rate decision next week, the short-term gold will likely remain within the range for volatility and consolidation. Intraday short-term transactions focus on the upper resistance pressure: 1713/1722/ 1727/1733; support position attention; 1702/1697/1690/1686; intraday short-term trading focus on 1713 position, which is the dividing line between the strength and weakness of the intraday gold trend, and the price is under pressure below 1713.

The intraday gold trend will continue to fluctuate The bearish trend is the main trend. Once the price is effectively broken and stabilized above 1713, the gold trend in the day will be dominated by a four-hour period of shock and consolidation range, focusing on the 1697-1720 range. Suggestions for intraday short-term trading strategies: Gold prices rebounded near 1712-1713 and short-term storage, defended 1716, and looked at the target in the 1703-1697-1690 range.

Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. Personal advice is only for exchange and reference, and do not make trading instructions.

Analyst: Mr.Duke Ruan, Independent Analyst

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