Inflation slows, but the Fed is still hawkish
The latest U.S. inflation data released yesterday evening showed that the U.S. inflation momentum slowed down. After the U.S. CPI in July recorded a new high of more than 40 years in June, the inflation in July eased.
The CPI data released yesterday recorded a level of 8.5%. It was lower than the 8.7% level that the market generally expected. After the release of the CPI data yesterday, the market’s expectation that the Fed will continue to maintain aggressive interest rate hikes in September has declined.
From 68% to 43.5%, the market expects that the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points in September is 56.5%. The market’s expectation that the Fed will continue to maintain aggressive interest rate hikes in September has cooled down, causing the dollar to dive sharply, and gold has benefited from the sharp dive in the dollar.
Breakthrough The 1800 mark, but then the hawkish remarks of the Fed officials suppressed the market’s expectations for the future of the Fed’s monetary policy to be moderate, and also caused the dollar to quickly stabilize and return to the 105 mark after falling below the 105 mark, while gold was subject to the hawks of Fed officials. The influence of the speech was blocked after reaching 1808 and fell back to the 1800 mark.
The market’s easing of CPI in July was mainly attributed to the fall in crude oil prices. Crude oil prices recorded consecutive declines in June/July, falling below the 90 mark for a time. The fall in crude oil prices eased inflationary pressures to a certain extent, but Fed officials said, More data is needed to prove that U.S. inflation is indeed showing signs of easing. One month’s inflation data can’t prove anything.
The Fed needs more data to confirm whether inflation has peaked. More economic data is needed to judge. The next step in monetary policy. Some analysts believe that with the decline in crude oil prices, the supply chain tension has been eased.
Although global inflation is still high, there are also signs of inflation gradually peaking. In addition, the US labor market remains strong, and the unemployment rate has fallen again. The strength of the labor market will keep people’s demand rising to a certain extent.
Continued rise in demand is obviously a problem for curbing inflation. The strong performance of the labor market may allow the Fed to maintain aggressively hawkish monetary policy.
Gold’s falling structure in the monthly cycle remains intact, but there is a signal to stop falling in the short-term on the monthly cycle, and there is a need to enter into a shock, correction and correction in the short-term. There is still the possibility of continuing to rebound and higher.
The short-term rebound momentum of the daily cycle is blocked. Investors pay close attention to the closing of the daily daily line. If the daily daily line closes down again, the rebound of the gold daily cycle will end, and there will be a short-term peak. Signal, the future is expected to pull back to the 1740-1743 range.
The short-term trend of gold in the four-hour and one-hour cycle is volatile and bearish. For the intraday trend, pay attention to the suppression of the resistance position of 1793/1795/1802/1808/1815, and pay attention to 1783/1778/1773/1769/1760 for support.
In the day as a whole, the daily cycle needs to continue to step back and correct, and the short-term trend in the day should focus on 1795 Position, this position can be judged as the dividing line between the strength and weakness of the intraday trend.
Below this position, the price is volatile and bearish in the intraday. Once the price breaks above this position, it is expected to continue to test the high point of yesterday and even make a new high within the day.
Intraday strategy suggestions: the price rebounds in the 1791-1795 range, and the 1791-1795 range is short, defensively at 1797, and looking at the 1783-1778-2773-1760 range target.
Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. Personal advice is only for exchange and reference, and do not make trading instructions.
Analyst: Mr.Duke Ruan, Independent Analyst
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