Spot Gold Analysis
On Monday (February 6) in the early Asian market, spot gold fell first and then rose, and is now reported at $1874.3 per ounce. Looking back at the market last Friday, the price of gold last Friday maintained a volatile operation during the Asian-European trading session. After hitting a daily high of 1918.4, it was under pressure. Stimulated by the data during the US session, the price of gold fell rapidly, falling to 1861.2 at one point, and finally closed at 1865.2 USD/ ounces, a long Yin K-line was closed on the daily line.
On the news side, the non-agricultural data released last Friday was exceptionally beautiful. The non-agricultural employment population increased by 517,000 after seasonal adjustment in January, much higher than the forecast of 185,000. The U.S. unemployment rate recorded 3.4% in January, a 53-year low. This excellent report card detonated the dollar market. In the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision announced in the early hours of last Thursday, the 25 basis point rate hike was in line with market expectations; then Powell revealed at a press conference that the Fed will not end its tightening policy prematurely, and more data support is needed to confirm inflation. Persistence of decline. Recently, the IMF has raised China’s economic growth forecast for 2023 from 4.5% to 5.2%. The economic recovery will boost the demand for materials, and the rise in commodity prices is not conducive to the fall in inflation. In summary, the market predicts that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates.
With regard to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the intensity of the war may be escalated because Western countries aid Ukraine with tanks. The market’s analysis of the Russia-Ukraine situation, on the one hand, geopolitical tensions will trigger risk aversion and limit the decline in gold prices. On the other hand, the deterioration of Russia-Germany relations will put pressure on the euro and boost the dollar. Therefore, there is a risk of violent fluctuations in the short-term market.
On the technical side, the spot gold market closed negatively on the weekly line, breaking the continuous upward momentum for many weeks, and the long upper shadow line means that there is strong selling pressure from above. On the daily line, relying on the lower track of the Bollinger Bands to launch an upward attack, the KD indicator is dead fork; in the 4-hour period, the gold price pierces the lower track of the Bollinger Bands and then rebounds upwards, the KD indicator sticks to the low position, the 1-hour chart, the bulls have strong momentum, and the KD indicator golden fork. The current market is fluctuating and correcting. Although there has been a rebound, the short positions are relatively strong in the big cycle. Therefore, it is recommended to short rallies.
Resistance position: 1878/1885/1891
Support position: 1860/1854/1848
Empty near 1878-1880, defend 1885, target 1870/1860/1850.
Analyst: Mr.Chris Lau, independent analyst